Why plan?

Pandemics are a part of human history. There were three pandemics in the last century in 1918, 1957 and 1968; the most deadly was the pandemic of 1918, which killed approximately 50 million people worldwide. The range between pandemics is from 10 to 49 years, however, there is no predicable pattern. A pandemic will occur again although it is not known exactly when or which strain of a novel virus will be responsible for the event.

Three conditions must be met for a pandemic to occur: a new influenza virus subtype
emerges; the virus infects humans; and the virus gains efficient and sustainable
transmission from human to human. Currently, there is heightened concern about H5N1, a highly pathogenic avian viral strain which first appeared in 1997 in Hong Kong. There are striking similarities between the H1N1, the virus responsible for the 1918 Pandemic, and H5N1. Despite the fact that millions of birds, domestic and wild have been culled, the infection has been persistent in the bird population and is spreading along the flight paths of migratory birds. In addition to the persistence of infection in the bird population, the virus has crossed species and infected humans, tigers, leopards, cats and pigs.

Although it has crossed species, it has done so in a very limited number of cases given
the millions of birds that are infected with the virus. There have been a few cases in
which human-to-human transmission is believed to have occurred. However, it has not spread beyond one contact. A pandemic can last for up to two years; coming and going in waves. A severe pandemic can lead to major disruptions in daily life and affect everything from school and business closings to interruption of basic services such as transportation, electric, water and food supplies. There would be a strain on health care systems as many people become ill at the same time.

For the first time in history, we have an opportunity to track the activity of a virus that
has the potential to cause a pandemic and to prepare for such an event. While many
strategies are underway to prepare for a pandemic, including the development of
antivirals and vaccines, most experts agree that we are inadequately prepared to respond.

If a virus would gain sustainable, efficient transmissibility, the public health strategy
would focus on slowing the spread because it would be virtually impossible to stop it.
Effective planning on the part of organizations and individuals is the best way to prepare ourselves to cope with the challenges we would face.